A Short Primer on Validating Stock Trend Data

Reliable trends start with reliable data. Our research on repeating return-window trends (20–180 trading days) is backed by a layered validation program spanning ingestion to model outputs.

1) Ingestion & Schema

  • Strict datatypes, keys, and trading-calendar alignment.

  • Duplicate prevention; negative or impossible values rejected.

  • Corporate actions normalized (splits/dividends) with sanity checks.

2) Content Quality

  • Gap detection (e.g., >3 missing trading days) and staleness alerts.

  • Outlier screening via z-scores/IQR, reconciled to events (splits, halts, news).

  • Cross-vendor parity checks on prices and corporate actions with defined tolerances.

3) Calculation Integrity

  • Recompute rolling 20–180 day returns and annualization independently (SQL vs. Python).

  • Edge-window tests ensure correct first/last eligible dates.

  • Idempotence: same inputs yield identical outputs.

4) Bias & Leakage Controls

  • No look-ahead: features limited to information available at the decision date.

  • No survivorship bias: delisted symbols retained; index membership time-stamped.

  • Corporate events mapped to preserve continuity (mergers, ticker changes).

5) Monitoring & Governance

  • Freshness, completeness, and quality KPIs tracked continually.

  • Versioned releases with manifests, immutable raw zone, and lineage to code commits.

  • Peer review, canary runs, and incident playbooks; defects quarantined and disclosed.

6) Trend Repeatability

  • Year-by-year returns and threshold flags (e.g., ≥30%, ≥40%) recomputed from adjusted data.

  • “% of years meeting threshold” validated across variable analysis ranges.

Outcome
Transparent lineage, reproducible results, and rapid anomaly containment—so client decisions rest on defensible, auditable data.

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